ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1981-2019)
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ABSTRACT
This study investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria over the period of 1981-2019. Specifically, the study analyses the relationship of public debt on economic growth using domestic debt and external debt. The study used annually time series data for domestic debt stock, external debt stock, exchange rate, and consumer price index. The multiple regression analysis, Unit Root test, Johansen cointegration test, and Granger causality test were employed in this study. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that external debt has negative and significant relationship with economic growth and domestic debt has a positive relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. The ADF unit root test shows that all variables were non stationary at level but all became stationary at first difference. The Johansen co-integration test shows that there is a long run relationship between economic growth, and public debt variables in Nigeria. The granger causality test also shows that external and domestic debt granger causes GDP in Nigeria. The study recommends the government should tie every public borrowing to a specific project that is production oriented. Acquiring debts domestically is also recommended rather than foreign debts because it has a positive relationship with GDP and lastly, the study recommends the government should increase their efforts to diversify sources of revenue and increase the tax-to-GDP ratio.
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